Protestors run from tear gas during a demonstration against the
Burundian President's third term in the Cibitoke neighborhood of
Bujumbura on June 2, 2015. . AFP PHOTO | CARL DE SOUZA
BUJUMBURA, BURUNDI
During
Monday's truce in anti-government protests, Renovat Ndayizeye was quick
to try to reopen his stall in Jabe market in Burundi's capital. He has
scarcely sold a single pair of shoes since demonstrations began weeks
ago, and he is getting desperate.
"I haven't worked
since the protests began, we are living on our savings, and now I have
nothing," said the 26-year-old salesman, surrounded by others who had
taken advantage of a pause in the protests to reopen their small wooden
shack shops.
Some customers did turn up to shop, but only for basic necessities like rice, meat, vegetables and soap.
Across
the Burundian capital, business has been paralysed since demonstrators
opposed to President Pierre Nkurunziza's third term bid began street
protests, leading to almost daily, violent clashes with police. For over
a month, customers have deserted the market and traders have left their
goods locked up in the once teeming alleys.
The
consequences of the political crisis in Burundi, and the protests
primarily in its capital, are dramatic for traders like Ndayizeye, but
also potentially disastrous for the country's already faltering economy.
The
tiny Great Lakes nation was ravaged by a 13-year civil war that ended
in 2006 and today is one of the poorest countries on the planet: gross
national income per capita is $260 (238 euros), 58 per cent of the
population suffers chronic malnutrition, it exports very little,
produces too little to feed itself and is riddled with corruption.
Many
of the demonstrations have taken place on the outskirts of Bujumbura,
fuelled by poverty and unemployment. This does not prevent them from
playing the economic card, erecting barricades to prevent people from
reaching their workplaces in order to hit the economy and force the
president to abandon a third term bid they believe is unconstitutional.
Protesters
are seeking to "turn Bujumbura into a dead city," fumed a senior
official in the ruling CNDD-FDD party. "The impact of the demonstrations
on the economy is real. It is a terrible weapon."
PAINFUL TIMES AHEAD
Even
before the announcement of Nkurunziza's third term bid at the end of
April, and the start of protests, the economy was suffering from a
pre-election depression.
Fears of a return to
large-scale violence in a country — which has a bitter history of
inter-ethnic massacres — has driven people to change their Burundian
francs for dollars or euros, and shelter their savings in their homes or
in neighbouring Rwanda.
April tax revenues, collected
mainly in Bujumbura, dropped 18 per cent. The shortfall was worse in May
which saw the closing of shops and banks, the blocking of roads into
key areas of the capital and the fearful exodus of tens of thousands of
Burundians to neighbouring countries.
The dire economic
situation is compounded by the effect of the political crisis on vital
foreign aid, which accounts for half the national budget. Insecurity
directly affects projects financed by donors such as the World Bank,
whose experts were evacuated amid the violence leading to a reduction in
disbursements.
Hard currency is already missing for
the import of fuel, for hops used in production of the popular local
beer, for medicines and for products such as charcoal used for cooking
which has tripled in price. A leading local economist, speaking on
condition of anonymity, has warned of looming hyperinflation.
The
ruling party official has said the salaries of civil servants will be
paid in May, June and July. But that might come at a price, the
economist said, with increased pressure on the Burundian franc, and
therefore on prices, if the government were to print money or default on
debt repayments.
Like the small scale traders in Jabe,
the private sector lacks room to manoeuvre: the crisis and insecurity
has hit private hotels hard and forced them to lay off staff.
An
end to violence, however, may not be enough to revive the economy,
especially if the election re-instates the president, analysts said.
Ignoring
international warnings, Nkurunziza is preparing for five hard years at
the head of an isolated country. Belgium, the former colonial power and a
key donor to the country, has notably already suspended direct aid.
"After the elections it will be painful," said the CNDD-FDD official.